Biomethane outlook · Ukraine and the EU
Ukraine uses less than 1% of its biomethane potential
Europe is short of renewable gas. Ukraine has the feedstock, a large gas transmission system and direct pipeline access to the EU. The regulatory framework for export has started to work.
21.8
bcm per year
Estimated biomethane potential of Ukraine (Bioenergy Association of Ukraine)
~0.11
bcm per year
Combined capacity of the 6–7 biomethane plants operating in 2026
1 → 2.1
bcm · 2030 → 2035
Targets of the state Biomethane Development Programme to 2035
35
bcm by 2030
EU biomethane target under REPowerEU
Europe will miss its target without new supply
EU installed capacity reached about 7 bcm in early 2025. Current investment points to about 7.3 bcm by 2030, against a 35 bcm target (European Biogas Association).
REPowerEU target, 203035
Expected at current investment, 20307.3
Installed capacity, Q1 20257.0
Expected gap to target: about 28 bcm per year.
The market has started
- 2025First exports of Ukrainian biomethane to the EU, about 11.2 million m³
- February 2026National Biomethane Registry launched, issuing guarantees of origin under RED II and RED III
- April 2026Government approves the Biomethane Development Programme to 2035 (Resolution No. 514)
- 2026–2030Alignment with EU law, mutual recognition of guarantees of origin, 8 new plants planned for 2026–2028
The premium comes with the certificate
| Document | What it proves | Why buyers need it |
|---|---|---|
| Proof of Sustainability (PoS) | Compliance with RED sustainability criteria: feedstock, GHG savings, mass-balance chain of custody | Main source of the price premium in regulated markets |
| ISCC EU, REDcert-EU or SURE certification | The producer has passed an audit under an EU-recognised voluntary scheme | Required before a PoS can be issued |
| Guarantee of Origin (GO) | Renewable origin of the gas, issued by Ukraine's Biomethane Registry | Disclosure and corporate reporting; traded separately from the gas |
Certified biomethane in the EU averages €80–110 per MWh (UABIO, 2025). Lower carbon intensity means a higher price, which favours manure-based plants. Recognition of Ukrainian certificates in some EU markets is still being finalised.